Revealed: Every Premier League club's start to season's difficulty is ranked by Opta's super-computer... So which title-chasers have the EASIEST start? And who gets the toughest first five games?

By Tamara Prenn

Published: | Updated:

With the release of the 2024-25 season's fixtures on Tuesday morning, fans have been scrambling take a closer look at how their Premier League side's fortunes might shake out. 

While a number of the fixtures are subject to change and will undoubtedly be moved this way and that with the advent of European and domestic cup dates, supporters are already looking forward to - or dreading - the start of the next campaign. 

But while all supporters are likely to believe their team has the toughest start in just two months time, one club has managed to, on the face of it, skirt danger in their opening five fixtures. 


As per Opta Analyst, Liverpool are the most fortunate of all 20 Premier League sides, with average danger rating of their first five fixtures coming out at just 83.7. 

Incoming head coach Arne Slot will attempt to avoid a banana skin on his side's opening day, having been drawn against freshly promoted Ipswich, who are back in the Premier League for the first time in 22 years. 

Liverpool have the easiest opening five matches of next season as per Opta's super-computer

Liverpool have the easiest opening five matches of next season as per Opta's super-computer

If the stats are to be believed, incoming head coach Arne Slot will be grateful to ease into life in the Premier League

If the stats are to be believed, incoming head coach Arne Slot will be grateful to ease into life in the Premier League

The Reds will then chase that away fixture by welcoming Brentford at home, a team they beat 7-1 on aggregate during last season's campaign. 

Liverpool will meet just one Big Six opponent during their first five, when Slot's players travel to Old Trafford to face of with Manchester United. 

This fixture is undoubtedly Liverpool's toughest test during the period, with the Merseyside club going without a win in their last three outings in Manchester. 

Clashes with Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth round of their opening fixtures, which should ease Slot nicely into Premier League living following his move from Eredivisie side Feyenoord. 

Man United are the closest of their Big Six rivals to have a straightforward Premier League opening, with their first five matches handed an average rating of 86.0 - the 10th easiest. 

The remainder of the Premier League big beasts will have considerably tougher times getting off the mark, with Tottenham facing the eighth-most-difficult test with an average rating of 86.8. 

Spurs may not meet more than one Big Six opponent - Arsenal, in their fourth match - but could find it difficult to overturn clubs such as Newcastle or Everton. 

Manchester City and Chelsea both have similarly challenging runs, with the former's ranked seventh-most-difficult, and the latter's sixth-toughest. 

The clubs will open their 2024-25 campaign against one another in an intriguing clash at Stamford Bridge set to reunite incoming Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca with his former boss Pep Guardiola. 

Arsenal have the most difficult opening five fixtures of all of their Big Six rivals next season

Arsenal have the most difficult opening five fixtures of all of their Big Six rivals next season

Maresca worked at Man City and managed their development squad before striking out on his own, first at Parma, then Leicester - where he helped the Foxes book an immediate route back to the Premier League. 

But of the Big Six sides, Arsenal face the hardiest challenge straight off the mark, given a fearsome Opta Power Rating average of 88.7 - the fourth-toughest in the table. 

After opening their season against Wolves, Arsenal travel to Unai Emery's upstart Aston Villa side. 

Hosting Brighton at home may offer a brief respite, but could prove thorny if new coach Fabian Hurzeler has the Seagulls' raft of under-the-radar talent fit and firing - but a first north London derby against Tottenham and a meeting with title-challenging Man City will surely be stickier meetings.  

Spare a thought, however, for the team with the hardest opening spell, just months after battling for Premier League survival. 

Brentford will have to hunker down and hope their pre-season period has proved fruitful, as they come up against ascendant Crystal Palace, Liverpool, newly promoted Southampton, Man City, and Tottenham in their opening five games. 

Across the opening 10 games, Brentford's average difficulty rating drops to 87.0, making it the eighth-most-difficult as per Opta's super-computer. 

But Brentford have the most challenging start to the 2024-25 Premier League campaign

But Brentford have the most challenging start to the 2024-25 Premier League campaign

Over 10 games, however, Wolves will be hoping they make it through a tough opening spell

Over 10 games, however, Wolves will be hoping they make it through a tough opening spell

Looking at the larger slice of opening games will also prove challenging reading for Blues fans, whose fortunes leap up the standings to third-toughest, with an average rating of 87.7. 

Heading towards winter, Maresca's side will face a challenging period to circumnavigate alongside a return to European football, with clashes against Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester United capping their opening spell. 

Arsenal's difficulty rating moves in the other direction, with their rating droping to 87.1 - and sixth-toughest - over 10, rather than five, opening matches. 

Liverpool is in turn moved off the bottom spot, although still deep in the lower-half of the table, and replaced as the Big Six side with the 'easiest' 10-game spell by Man City. 

Guardiola's side are deemed to have the fifth-easiest start to the season across 10 games, facing off with just two Big Six opponents during the period.