Richard Ward
Richard Ward (Libertarian Party) ran for election to the U.S. House to represent Colorado's 8th Congressional District. Ward lost in the general election on November 8, 2022.
2022 battleground election
Ballotpedia identified the November 8, 2022, general election as a battleground race. The summary below is from our coverage of this election, found here.
Yadira Caraveo (D) defeated Barbara Kirkmeyer (R), Richard Ward (L), and Tim Long (Colorado Center Party) in the general election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District on November 8, 2022.
Caraveo was a pediatrician and a member of the Colorado House of Representatives, first elected in 2018. Caraveo, whose parents immigrated to the U.S. from Mexico, said, "Colorado families need a powerful partner fighting for them in Congress — not divisiveness and extremism. I am fighting so that our kids can achieve the same American Dream I was able to."[1][2]
Kirkmeyer was a member of the Colorado State Senate, first elected in 2020. Before entering the Senate, Kirkmeyer was a Weld County Commissioner from 1993 to 2000 and 2009 to 2020. Kirkmeyer said she would "lower the cost of living, restore order to the border, bring back energy independence, and stand up for law enforcement."[3]
The 8th District, located north of Denver and including parts of Adams, Larimer, and Weld Counties, was one of seven new congressional districts created after the 2020 census and the first new congressional district in Colorado since 2001.
Bloomberg Government's Zach Cohen wrote, "The diversity and competitiveness of Colorado's new 8th District has it primed to serve as a key House race in congressional this year and beyond."[4]
Heading into the election, 27% percent of the district's active registered voters were Democrats, 24% were Republicans, and 47% were unaffiliated.[5] At the time of the election, the 8th District also had the state's largest percentage of Hispanic or Latino residents, who made up 39% of the district's population. Non-Hispanic white residents made up 52% of the district.[6]
An analysis of eight statewide elections held between 2016 and 2020 found that Democrats would win the newly created 8th District by an average of 1.3 percentage points.[7] At the presidential level specifically, Roll Call's Nathan Gonazlez reported that Donald Trump (R) would have won the 8th District by two percentage points in 2016, and Joe Biden (D) would have won by four percentage points in 2020.[8]
The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
Republicans won a 222-213 majority in the U.S. House in 2022.
Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 50.8% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 46.3%.[9]
Elections
2022
See also: Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022
Yadira Caraveo defeated Barbara Kirkmeyer, Richard Ward, and Tim Long in the general election for U.S. House Colorado District 8 on November 8, 2022. Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.General election for U.S. House Colorado District 8
✔ Yadira Caraveo (D)
114,377 Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) 112,745 Richard Ward (L)
9,280 Tim Long (Colorado Center Party) (Write-in) 99 Total votes: 236,501 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Matthew Payette (Independent)
- Steve Zorn (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 8
Yadira Caraveo advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Colorado District 8 on June 28, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Yadira Caraveo | 100.0 | 38,837 | |
| Total votes: 38,837 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Joshua Rodriguez (D)
- Chaz Tedesco (D)
- Johnny Humphrey (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 8
Barbara Kirkmeyer defeated Jan Kulmann, Lori Saine, and Tyler Allcorn in the Republican primary for U.S. House Colorado District 8 on June 28, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Barbara Kirkmeyer | 39.0 | 22,724 | |
| Jan Kulmann | 23.0 | 13,398 | ||
| Lori Saine | 21.2 | 12,357 | ||
| Tyler Allcorn | 16.7 | 9,743 | ||
| Total votes: 58,222 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Joshua Rodriguez (R)
- Jewels Gray (R)
- Ryan Gonzalez (R)
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[10] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[11] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.
The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[12] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[13] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.
| U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Report | Close of books | Filing deadline |
| Year-end 2021 | 12/31/2021 | 1/31/2022 |
| April quarterly | 3/31/2022 | 4/15/2022 |
| July quarterly | 6/30/2022 | 7/15/2022 |
| October quarterly | 9/30/2022 | 10/15/2022 |
| Pre-general | 10/19/2022 | 10/27/2022 |
| Post-general | 11/28/2022 | 12/08/2022 |
| Year-end 2022 | 12/31/2022 | 1/31/2023 |
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yadira Caraveo | Democratic Party | $3,563,280 | $3,545,738 | $17,542 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Tyler Allcorn | Republican Party | $357,200 | $357,200 | $0 | As of September 30, 2022 |
| Barbara Kirkmeyer | Republican Party | $1,602,545 | $1,570,692 | $31,853 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Jan Kulmann | Republican Party | $499,430 | $499,430 | $0 | As of August 3, 2022 |
| Lori Saine | Republican Party | $371,173 | $371,173 | $0 | As of November 21, 2022 |
| Tim Long | Colorado Center Party | $9,622 | $8,401 | $1,321 | As of December 6, 2022 |
| Richard Ward | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[14][15][16]
If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.
| By candidate | By election |
|---|---|
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[17]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[18][19][20]
| Race ratings: Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Tilt Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Campaign themes
2022
Ballotpedia survey responses
See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection
Richard Ward did not complete Ballotpedia's 2022 Candidate Connection survey.
See also
2022 Elections
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Facebook, "Dr. Yadira Caraveo," June 28, 2022
- ↑ Yadira Caraveo's 2022 campaign website, "About," accessed Sept. 1, 2022
- ↑ Barbara Kirkmeyer's 2022 campaign website, "Home," accessed Sept. 1, 2022
- ↑ Bloomberg Government, "Colorado’s Most Competitive House District Could Be ‘Bellwether,'" July 7, 2022
- ↑ Colorado Secretary of State, "Total Registered Voters by Congressional District, Party, and Status," accessed Nov. 28, 2022
- ↑ Colorado Public Radio, "Colorado District 8: who’s in the race to represent the most competitive seat in the state?" Feb. 14, 2022
- ↑ Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission, "Statewide Election Results by District," Sept. 28, 2021
- ↑ Roll Call, "New lines, new ratings for House races in Colorado," Oct. 5, 2021
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
- ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
