Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16 , or in-person on Nov. 6
- Early voting: Sept. 21 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: June 5, 2018 |
| Primary: August 14, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Erik Paulsen (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Minnesota |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Minnesota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
A Republican Party primary election took place on August 14, 2018, in Minnesota's 3rd District to determine which Republican would run in the district's November 6, 2018, general election.
This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the election in general, click here.
Candidates and election results
Incumbent Erik Paulsen advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 14, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Erik Paulsen | 100.0 | 39,077 | |
| Total votes: 39,077 | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District the 189th most Democratic nationally.[1]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[2]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[3]
Republicans
Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[4] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in Minnesota.
- Democrats held 5 of 8 U.S. House seats in Minnesota.
State executives
- The governor of Minnesota was Democrat Mark Dayton. The state held an election for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.
Trifecta status
- Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Minnesota elections, 2018
Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- Two U.S. Senate seats (one regular election and one special election)
- 8 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Five lower state executive positions
- 134 state House seats
- One state Senate seat
- Municipal elections in St. Paul, Hennepin County, and Ramsey County
Demographics
| Demographic data for Minnesota | ||
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 5,482,435 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 79,627 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 84.8% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 5.5% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 1% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.7% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 5% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 92.4% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 33.7% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $61,492 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[9]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | 46.4% | 44.9% | 1.5% | ||
| 2012 | 52.7% | 45.0% | 7.7% | ||
| 2008 | 54.1% | 43.8% | 10.3% | ||
| 2004 | 51.1% | 47.6% | 3.5% | ||
| 2000 | 47.9% | 45.5% | 2.4% | ||
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | 53.2% | 42.9% | 10.3% | ||
| 2012 | 65.2% | 30.5% | 34.7% | ||
| 2008 | 41.99% | 41.98% | 0.01% | ||
| 2006 | 58.1% | 37.9% | 20.2% | ||
| 2002 | 49.5% | 47.3% | 2.2% | ||
| 2000 | 48.8% | 43.3% | 5.5% | ||
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.
| Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | 50.1% | 44.5% | 5.6% | ||
| 2010 | 43.6% | 43.2% | 0.4% | ||
| 2006 | 46.7% | 45.7% | 1.0% | ||
| 2002 | 44.4% | 36.5% | 7.9% | ||
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 37.5% | 62.5% | D+2 | ||
| 2014 | 37.5% | 62.5% | D+2 | ||
| 2012 | 37.5% | 62.5% | D+2 | ||
| 2010 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Even | ||
| 2008 | 37.5% | 62.5% | D+2 | ||
| 2006 | 37.5% | 62.5% | D+2 | ||
| 2004 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Even | ||
| 2002 | 50.0% | 50.0% | Even | ||
| 2000 | 37.5% | 62.5% | D+2 | ||
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | I | I | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2018
- United States House elections in Minnesota (August 14, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018
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