California's 21st Congressional District election, 2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 21
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | TJ Cox (D) | 50.4 | 57,239 | |
David G. Valadao (R) | 49.6 | 56,377 |
Total votes: 113,616 | ||||
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- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 22
- Early voting: Oct. 8 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 21st Congressional District of California, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was David Valadao (R), who was first elected in 2012.
California's 21st Congressional District is located in the south-central portion of the state and includes Kings County and parts of Fresno, Tulare and Kern counties.[1]
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 21
TJ Cox defeated incumbent David G. Valadao in the general election for U.S. House California District 21 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | TJ Cox (D) | 50.4 | 57,239 | |
David G. Valadao (R) | 49.6 | 56,377 |
Total votes: 113,616 | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 21
Incumbent David G. Valadao and TJ Cox advanced from the primary for U.S. House California District 21 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | David G. Valadao (R) | 62.8 | 34,290 | |
✔ | TJ Cox (D) | 37.2 | 20,293 |
Total votes: 54,583 | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Emilio Huerta (D)
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made California's 21st Congressional District the 168th most Democratic nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[3]
Race background
California's 21st District was listed as one of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's initial targets in 2018.[4]
Advertising Analytics reported that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's cut $70,000 from a scheduled ad buy for the final week of the campaign. The ads pulled were to run between Oct. 30 and Nov. 6, the closing days before the election.[5]
Incumbent David Valadao was included as one of the initial members of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program in 2018.[6]
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
David G. Valadao | Republican Party | $3,285,165 | $3,255,419 | $78,918 | As of December 31, 2018 |
TJ Cox | Democratic Party | $2,975,996 | $2,921,205 | $54,791 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Campaign advertisements
David Valadao
Oppose
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Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[7] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent David Valadao (R) defeated Emilio Huerta (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Valadao and Huerta defeated Daniel Parra (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[12][13][14]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | 56.7% | 75,126 | ||
Democratic | Emilio Huerta | 43.3% | 57,282 | |
Total Votes | 132,408 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State |
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican |
|
54% | 37,367 | |
Democratic | 24.2% | 16,743 | ||
Democratic | Daniel Parra | 21.8% | 15,056 | |
Total Votes | 69,166 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State |
2014
California's 21st Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to it being a Democratic leaning district held by a Republican incumbent. Incumbent David Valadao (R) and Amanda Renteria (D) triumphed in the blanket primary over John Hernandez (D). Valadao successfully defended his seat, defeating Renteria in the general election on November 4, 2014.[15][16]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | 57.8% | 45,907 | ||
Democratic | Amanda Renteria | 42.2% | 33,470 | |
Total Votes | 79,377 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State |
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
There are no Pivot Counties in California. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won California with 61.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 31.6 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, California voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 43.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, California voted Democratic all five times. In 2016, California had 55 electoral votes, which was the most of any state. The 55 electoral votes were 10.2 percent of all 538 available electoral votes and were 20.4 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in California. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[17][18]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 58 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 38.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 66 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 40.3 points. Clinton won 11 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 22 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 80 state Assembly districts in California with an average margin of victory of 13 points. |
2016 Presidential Results by State Assembly District | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 39.63% | 57.31% | R+17.7 | 36.09% | 56.75% | R+20.7 | R |
2 | 64.68% | 30.51% | D+34.2 | 62.20% | 28.98% | D+33.2 | D |
3 | 42.41% | 54.46% | R+12.1 | 39.47% | 53.31% | R+13.8 | R |
4 | 63.16% | 33.86% | D+29.3 | 63.03% | 29.95% | D+33.1 | D |
5 | 41.27% | 55.92% | R+14.7 | 38.51% | 54.85% | R+16.3 | R |
6 | 38.59% | 59.09% | R+20.5 | 41.17% | 52.02% | R+10.9 | R |
7 | 67.59% | 29.61% | D+38 | 67.63% | 25.69% | D+41.9 | D |
8 | 51.72% | 45.62% | D+6.1 | 51.77% | 41.03% | D+10.7 | D |
9 | 60.56% | 37.52% | D+23 | 61.47% | 32.89% | D+28.6 | D |
10 | 73.76% | 23.28% | D+50.5 | 75.65% | 17.96% | D+57.7 | D |
11 | 60.96% | 36.87% | D+24.1 | 58.86% | 35.17% | D+23.7 | D |
12 | 45.19% | 52.50% | R+7.3 | 43.11% | 51.05% | R+7.9 | R |
13 | 64.23% | 33.88% | D+30.4 | 62.97% | 31.79% | D+31.2 | D |
14 | 68.80% | 28.72% | D+40.1 | 69.55% | 24.47% | D+45.1 | D |
15 | 86.82% | 9.56% | D+77.3 | 87.39% | 7.04% | D+80.4 | D |
16 | 57.74% | 40.10% | D+17.6 | 64.47% | 29.23% | D+35.2 | R |
17 | 87.07% | 9.36% | D+77.7 | 88.12% | 6.95% | D+81.2 | D |
18 | 86.89% | 10.23% | D+76.7 | 85.89% | 8.44% | D+77.5 | D |
19 | 78.94% | 18.38% | D+60.6 | 81.63% | 13.34% | D+68.3 | D |
20 | 75.74% | 22.15% | D+53.6 | 75.52% | 19.12% | D+56.4 | D |
21 | 55.61% | 42.03% | D+13.6 | 54.63% | 39.46% | D+15.2 | D |
22 | 71.43% | 26.31% | D+45.1 | 75.16% | 19.75% | D+55.4 | D |
23 | 43.46% | 54.71% | R+11.2 | 43.95% | 50.78% | R+6.8 | R |
24 | 72.16% | 24.96% | D+47.2 | 78.19% | 15.93% | D+62.3 | D |
25 | 72.40% | 25.26% | D+47.1 | 73.61% | 20.90% | D+52.7 | D |
26 | 41.15% | 56.68% | R+15.5 | 41.54% | 52.93% | R+11.4 | R |
27 | 76.36% | 21.54% | D+54.8 | 77.76% | 17.29% | D+60.5 | D |
28 | 66.64% | 30.77% | D+35.9 | 70.63% | 23.08% | D+47.6 | D |
29 | 69.95% | 26.66% | D+43.3 | 70.00% | 22.96% | D+47 | D |
30 | 66.99% | 30.86% | D+36.1 | 66.70% | 27.32% | D+39.4 | D |
31 | 61.98% | 36.21% | D+25.8 | 62.13% | 32.93% | D+29.2 | D |
32 | 56.20% | 41.81% | D+14.4 | 56.50% | 37.98% | D+18.5 | D |
33 | 41.80% | 55.51% | R+13.7 | 40.02% | 54.61% | R+14.6 | R |
34 | 33.96% | 63.85% | R+29.9 | 34.07% | 60.21% | R+26.1 | R |
35 | 47.82% | 49.42% | R+1.6 | 49.57% | 43.43% | D+6.1 | R |
36 | 48.79% | 48.48% | D+0.3 | 49.94% | 43.86% | D+6.1 | R |
37 | 60.97% | 36.28% | D+24.7 | 64.27% | 29.21% | D+35.1 | D |
38 | 46.73% | 50.84% | R+4.1 | 49.64% | 44.39% | D+5.2 | R |
39 | 73.75% | 23.67% | D+50.1 | 74.64% | 19.80% | D+54.8 | D |
40 | 53.14% | 44.72% | D+8.4 | 54.08% | 40.01% | D+14.1 | R |
41 | 59.74% | 37.72% | D+22 | 62.82% | 31.27% | D+31.5 | D |
42 | 44.98% | 52.93% | R+7.9 | 45.61% | 49.70% | R+4.1 | R |
43 | 67.35% | 29.62% | D+37.7 | 68.94% | 25.45% | D+43.5 | D |
44 | 52.37% | 45.51% | D+6.9 | 57.12% | 36.99% | D+20.1 | D |
45 | 63.46% | 34.12% | D+29.3 | 67.36% | 27.39% | D+40 | D |
46 | 73.73% | 23.65% | D+50.1 | 76.20% | 18.48% | D+57.7 | D |
47 | 71.49% | 26.54% | D+44.9 | 70.10% | 24.80% | D+45.3 | D |
48 | 64.08% | 33.44% | D+30.6 | 65.60% | 28.50% | D+37.1 | D |
49 | 64.69% | 33.26% | D+31.4 | 67.57% | 27.17% | D+40.4 | D |
50 | 70.79% | 26.51% | D+44.3 | 76.72% | 18.33% | D+58.4 | D |
51 | 83.48% | 13.50% | D+70 | 84.05% | 10.19% | D+73.9 | D |
52 | 65.01% | 32.92% | D+32.1 | 65.78% | 28.71% | D+37.1 | D |
53 | 84.64% | 12.59% | D+72 | 84.83% | 9.63% | D+75.2 | D |
54 | 83.62% | 13.88% | D+69.7 | 85.15% | 10.12% | D+75 | D |
55 | 45.77% | 52.23% | R+6.5 | 49.92% | 44.61% | D+5.3 | R |
56 | 62.14% | 36.26% | D+25.9 | 64.21% | 31.24% | D+33 | D |
57 | 63.71% | 34.01% | D+29.7 | 65.92% | 28.39% | D+37.5 | D |
58 | 70.24% | 27.80% | D+42.4 | 72.54% | 22.26% | D+50.3 | D |
59 | 93.24% | 5.19% | D+88 | 90.70% | 5.09% | D+85.6 | D |
60 | 51.32% | 46.31% | D+5 | 52.48% | 41.97% | D+10.5 | D |
61 | 63.43% | 34.55% | D+28.9 | 62.47% | 31.62% | D+30.9 | D |
62 | 80.81% | 17.00% | D+63.8 | 82.05% | 13.06% | D+69 | D |
63 | 76.06% | 21.73% | D+54.3 | 77.35% | 17.38% | D+60 | D |
64 | 88.74% | 9.98% | D+78.8 | 86.21% | 9.61% | D+76.6 | D |
65 | 51.90% | 45.68% | D+6.2 | 56.73% | 37.28% | D+19.4 | D |
66 | 54.18% | 43.24% | D+10.9 | 59.97% | 33.60% | D+26.4 | D |
67 | 39.61% | 58.33% | R+18.7 | 38.89% | 55.94% | R+17.1 | R |
68 | 42.55% | 55.12% | R+12.6 | 49.42% | 44.58% | D+4.8 | R |
69 | 67.37% | 30.30% | D+37.1 | 71.94% | 22.33% | D+49.6 | D |
70 | 67.38% | 29.93% | D+37.5 | 68.13% | 25.09% | D+43 | D |
71 | 38.47% | 59.51% | R+21 | 38.19% | 56.26% | R+18.1 | R |
72 | 46.71% | 51.06% | R+4.4 | 51.40% | 43.13% | D+8.3 | R |
73 | 38.68% | 59.36% | R+20.7 | 43.89% | 50.38% | R+6.5 | R |
74 | 45.14% | 52.42% | R+7.3 | 50.71% | 43.29% | D+7.4 | R |
75 | 39.42% | 58.50% | R+19.1 | 43.22% | 50.68% | R+7.5 | R |
76 | 48.76% | 49.04% | R+0.3 | 53.11% | 40.38% | D+12.7 | R |
77 | 48.25% | 49.83% | R+1.6 | 55.16% | 38.94% | D+16.2 | R |
78 | 63.15% | 34.08% | D+29.1 | 67.48% | 25.85% | D+41.6 | D |
79 | 61.21% | 36.91% | D+24.3 | 64.24% | 30.04% | D+34.2 | D |
80 | 69.47% | 28.67% | D+40.8 | 73.15% | 21.34% | D+51.8 | D |
Total | 60.35% | 37.19% | D+23.2 | 62.25% | 31.89% | D+30.4 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in California heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in California.
- Democrats held 39 of 53 U.S. House seats in California.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Democrats held seven of 10 state executive positions and the remaining three positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of California was Democrat Jerry Brown.
State legislature
- Democrats controlled both chambers of the California State Legislature. They had a 55-25 majority in the state Assembly and a 27-13 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- California was a state government trifecta, meaning that Democrats held the governorship and majorities in the state house and state senate.
2018 elections
- See also: California elections, 2018
California held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- 1 Senate seat
- 53 U.S. House seats
- Governor
- Seven other state executive positions
- 20 of 40 state Senate seats
- 80 state Assembly seats
- Two state Supreme Court justices
- 35 state Court of Appeals judges
- Local trial court judges
- School board members
Demographics
Demographic data for California | ||
---|---|---|
California | U.S. | |
Total population: | 38,993,940 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 155,779 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 61.8% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 5.9% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 13.7% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 0.7% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 4.5% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 38.4% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 81.8% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 31.4% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $61,818 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 18.2% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in California. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, California had a population of approximately 39,000,000 people, with its three largest cities being Los Angeles (pop. est. 4.0 million), San Diego (pop. est. 1.4 million), and San Jose (pop. est. 1 million).[19][20]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in California from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the California Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in California every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), California 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 61.7% | 31.6% | 30.1% | ||
2012 | 60.2% | 37.1% | 23.1% | ||
2008 | 61.1% | 37% | 24.1% | ||
2004 | 54.4% | 44.4% | 10% | ||
2000 | 53.5% | 41.7% | 11.8% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in California from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), California 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | 61.6% | 38.4% | 23.2% | ||
2012 | 62.5% | 37.5% | 25% | ||
2010 | 52.2% | 42.2% | 10% | ||
2006 | 59.5% | 35.1% | 24.4% | ||
2004 | 57.8% | 37.8% | 20% | ||
2000 | 55.9% | 36.6% | 19.3% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in California.
Election results (Governor), California 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | 60% | 40% | 20% | ||
2010 | 53.8% | 40.9% | 12.9% | ||
2006 | 55.9% | 39.0% | 16.9% | ||
2002 | 47.3% | 42.4% | 4.9% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent California in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
California Party Control: 1992-2024
Nineteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Assembly | D | D | D | S | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- California's 21st Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 top-two primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
- ↑ "Advertising Analytics," October 15, 2018
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Republicans believe these 10 House incumbents will face the toughest campaigns of 2018," February 15, 2017
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Statement of Vote," June 7, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 3, 2014
- ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ California Demographics, "California Cities by Population," accessed April 2, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts California," accessed April 2, 2018
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