Trudeau’s agony places him in the company of a long list of sinking incumbent governments around the world who left the global pandemic with one foot in the political grave, from U.K. Tory PM Rishi Sunak on track to get obliterated next week, to France’s Emmanuel Macron scrambling for survival and President Joe Biden in a dogfight against Donald Trump.

The difference: Trudeau still has the next year to attempt a Hail Mary pass — though nothing he has tried so far has worked.

The Monday race, viewed widely as a test on Trudeau’s leadership, was a nail biter that stretched into Tuesday morning and determined by a narrow margin.

Voters rejected Liberal candidate Leslie Church, a former chief of staff to Trudeau’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, and ushered Conservative candidate Don Stewart into Parliament.

The wealthy district that the party clung to even during its lows under Conservative governments is part of what Canada’s political class commonly calls “Fortress Toronto” — safe urban seats for the Liberals where the Conservatives normally have trouble breaking through.

There were early signs of trouble in the riding with an unusual presence of Liberal starpower at every turn. A steady stream of ranking Cabinet members, and even the PM himself, traveled to the district during the past weeks to work the phones and stump for Church.

The special election was held to replace a former Liberal Cabinet minister and elected member of Parliament, Carolyn Bennett, an incumbent there since 1997 who recently vacated the seat to become ambassador to Denmark.

Trudeau has been prime minister for nearly the past decade, but the past year has been especially rocky. His party has trailed far behind the Opposition Conservatives and the polls suggest most Canadians wish he would just step aside.

His party has chattered for months about whether he’s past his expiry date and should be replaced. That talk has been publicly muted, mostly taking place behind the scenes — but this new twist is expected to force that conversation into the open.

Former Conservative campaign manager Fred DeLorey said Monday night on Canada’s public broadcaster this lone race could very well be “Trudeau’s last stand,” since a loss means Liberal lawmakers “who all know their jobs are on the line in a year’s time are going to start getting vocal not just internally but externally.”

But several Liberals lined up on television ahead of the results to caution not to read too much into just one loss outside of a normal election cycle.

“If you have [a lone race] in the summer, during an Oilers game, during everything else that is going on, there’s always an element of unpredictability when you look at turnout, when you look at the ability to get people to the polls,” said Stevie O’Brien, senior adviser with McMillan Vantage.

Liberals also pointed out Trudeau has given every indication he plans to remain at the helm.

An Angus Reid poll released Monday asked Canadians about potential replacements for Trudeau and found none of the options would do much to “sway the general voting public to the Liberals” in the near term.

The polling firm also found Canadians are most concerned by the Liberal government’s lack of progress on key issues, such as the high cost of living and housing.

In a television interview on CBC’s Power and Politics last week, host David Cochrane pressed whether Trudeau accepts that he is the main reason his party is struggling so badly.

Trudeau dismissed the polling and replied that Canadians are angry for the same reasons they are everywhere else around the world.

“I was talking about this with other leaders at the G7 and in Switzerland at the peace conference for Ukraine,” he said. “Everywhere, people are struggling with high inflation, cost of living issues, interest rates, housing challenges, childcare challenges — all these things.

“We are doing better than many countries. [That] doesn’t make a difference to someone who can’t pay for their groceries, but people everywhere are facing a certain amount of frustration.”

The Liberals are internally seeking to make up five points by the end of summer. If that goal fails, the heat will crank up even further on Trudeau to take a hike — especially as the clock runs out for that option.

The conventional wisdom in Ottawa is that Trudeau would have to leave this summer to allow a reasonable amount of time for the party to choose a successor before Canadians head to the polls.

The next election must be held by fall 2025 under Canadian law, but the prime minister or a majority of the parties in Parliament could also decide to hold one earlier.

The Liberals are holding out hopes the cost of living will start to improve by the time Canadians go to the polls.